TURF optimization

Introduction

TURF (Total Unduplicated Reach and Frequency) is an optimization method that identifies a subset of items, called a portfolio, that maximizes the number of respondents reached.

Originally developed for broader survey research, TURF can also be applied to MaxDiff studies. Rather than selecting the most preferred items on average, TURF identifies combinations that most effectively motivate, satisfy, or appeal to the largest number of respondents.

For example, when deciding which ice cream flavors to stock, TURF can help maximize customer appeal given limited shelf space. Selecting only the most preferred flavors may overlook niche options that appeal to distinct segments, reducing overall reach. If most respondents enjoy vanilla, chocolate, and cookie dough but many are satisfied with any one of these, substituting one with a less common flavor like strawberry or mint chocolate chip could expand reach and boost sales.

Portfolio settings

Items per portfolio

Controls the number of items included in each portfolio.

Portfolios

Portfolios are collections of items optimized by TURF to maximize reach. Since several sets of items can achieve similar near-optimal reach, you can specify how many top-performing portfolios to display in the report. The default is 20.

Items configuration

Controls which items are included or excluded from the TURF analysis.

  • Consider in analysis: Specifies which items are included in the search space.
  • Force in all portfolios: Ensures specified items appear in every portfolio. Use this when certain items must always be included.

Analysis settings

Reach method

Three options are available for evaluating reach in TURF.

Weighted by probability

Reach is not treated as all-or-nothing. Respondents can be reached to varying degrees. A logit equation calculates the probability that a respondent is reached by an item in the portfolio.

First choice

A respondent is considered reached if their top-ranked item is included in the portfolio. This method also calculates frequency, which counts how often the top item appears in the portfolio across respondents. Frequency differs from reach only when a respondent has two items tied for their top choice.

When comparing portfolios with the same reach, prefer the one with higher frequency. For example, if 100 respondents each have their top item appear twice in the portfolio, reach is 100% and frequency is 200.

If items are excluded from the analysis, first choice considers only the highest-rated item among those included.

Threshold

A respondent is considered reached if the portfolio includes an item with a probability of choice above the threshold you specify.

For example, with four items per task, each item has a 25% average chance of being chosen. A threshold of 80% means a respondent is reached only if the portfolio includes an item with an 80% chance of selection compared to three average items. Enter 80 to signify 80%, not 0.80.

For anchored MaxDiff, the threshold maps directly to raw utility scores, where the anchor is assigned a value of 0 per respondent. A threshold of 0 means a respondent is reached if an item is above the anchor. A threshold of 1 means the raw utility must exceed 1.0.

Frequency in this method represents the count of items exceeding the threshold within the portfolio, counted across respondents.

Recommendations

For MaxDiff data, we typically recommend Weighted by probability. It makes effective use of potentially sparse data and is more stable — minor changes such as adding a few respondents are less likely to disrupt the rank order of optimal portfolios.

First choice makes less efficient use of detailed preference data and is more sensitive to small data changes, which can significantly shift the rank order of outcomes.

Threshold falls between the two in terms of efficiency, but determining the ideal threshold value for MaxDiff data can be challenging.

Since many TURF solutions deliver similar reach levels, additional criteria such as expert judgment can help select the most suitable portfolio. For instance, if a grocer knows that a frequently appearing flavor spoils quickly, they might prefer an alternative portfolio with comparable reach that avoids that item.

Missing items cannot reach people

This setting is only available when relevant items MaxDiff is used. When enabled, a missing item provides essentially zero reach for any respondent who did not see it in their MaxDiff questions.

Note: When enabled, a utility value of −30 is assumed for missing items, which effectively zeroes the reach contribution for those respondents.